Today, more than 3 years have passed since the COVID-19 pandemic began. During this time, dozens of high-quality tests have been developed. However, none of them is even 99% accurate.
Can tests be wrong? Of course they can. What is the probability that a person really has COVID if the best test result is positive?
To answer these questions, I downloaded data on the best coronavirus test in Russia so far, as well as data on the number of people infected and simulate 1 million tests in Python.